Steelers 4 Downs: 7th place in conference standings is familiar territory - TribLIVE

1. Seven of 16

Arguably no team should have been more pleased than the Pittsburgh Steelers when the NFL expanded its playoff field in 2020 from the top six to top seven from each conference. Seventh place in the AFC seems to suit the Steelers just fine.

For the fourth time over the past six years, the Steelers this season placed seventh in the conference standings. In fact, it extends back to six of the past 12 seasons the Steelers placed seventh among the AFC’s 16 teams.

That, of course, is above average. But the consistency of being precisely in that “upper-middle class” of the conference is becoming (depending on your perspective) either remarkable or quirky. During eight of coach Mike Tomlin’s 17 seasons — just about half — the Steelers have finished in the “slightly above-average” range between Nos. 6-8 in the AFC standings.

Tomlin has never presided over a season in which the Steelers placed lower than eighth in the AFC. As high-water marks, three times each Tomlin’s Steelers claimed the No. 3 and No. 2 seeds.

The good news about the propensity for seventh-place finishes is that since the start of this decade that has meant a postseason berth. If the seven-team format had existed starting in 2012, the Steelers would have had four additional playoff berths under Tomlin (2012, 2013, 2018, 2019), meaning he would have made the playoffs in all but two (2009, 2022) of his 17 seasons.

2. Life in Western New York

With the horrid forecast for Sunday’s Steelers wild-card playoff game at the Buffalo Bills, Sharp Football Analysis did a breakdown of how often heavy winds have affected Bills home games in Orchard Park, N.Y.

Sharp cited TruMedia data that dates back to 2000. In those 24 seasons, there were 22 Bills home games with sustained wind speeds of 14-plus mph, 14 games with 16 mph or more winds, 10 games with 18-plus mph winds, nine with winds of 20 mph or more and five with wind speeds of 23 or more mph.

The AccuWeather forecast posted Saturday morning for Sunday in Orchard Park called for sustained winds of 30 mph.

In other words, even by the standards of Buffalo, Sunday’s game could be an outlier when it comes to heavy wind.

3. Top WR duo?

Take the metric for what it’s worth, but an ESPN Analytics breakdown of player-tracking data from Next Gen Stats speaks highly of the Steelers’ starting wide receiver duo of George Pickens and Diontae Johnson.

They ranked sixth and seventh, respectively, among all NFL wide receivers in an overall rating derived from evaluating a pass-catcher’s ability to get open, make catches and run for yards after the catch. The only other team with two wide receivers among the top 10 at the position was the Houston Texans (Nico Collins, fourth; Tank Dell, ninth).

In measuring the “open” score among 109 qualifying league wide receivers, Johnson ranked 13^th and Pickens 18^th. In regards to making the catch, Pickens was No. 8 among the 109 and Johnson 16^th. Pickens was 14^th and Johnson 20^th in YAC.

4. Betting men

The Steelers finished the regular season with the same record against the betting spread as it did on the field: 10-7. In fact, according to the Covers.com compilation, bettors who took the Steelers with (or giving) points each week won the weeks the Steelers won and lost when the Steelers lost during all 17 games. The “under” hit for 11 of the Steelers’ 17 regular-season games, but “overs” rallied down the stretch involving the Steelers. Four of their final five games went “over” the set total. Steelers games went “under” during 10 of their first 12 outings of the season.

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Chris Adamski is a TribLive reporter who has covered primarily the Pittsburgh Steelers since 2014 following two seasons on the Penn State football beat. A Western Pennsylvania native, he joined the Trib in 2012 after spending a decade covering Pittsburgh sports for other outlets. He can be reached at cadamski@triblive.com.

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